12 worth st yonkers ny 10701

Modest Mouse

2010.02.22 22:49 jmmack Modest Mouse

All things Modest Mouse.
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2023.06.10 13:30 scholarship2001 National Scholarship Portal

National Scholarship Portal (NSP) 2022 is a digital scholarship platform that carries multiple scholarships offered by the Central Government, State Governments, and various government agencies like UGC (University Grants Commission). The National Scholarship Portal hosts around 104 scholarship schemes worth hundreds of crores for registered scholarship seekers on the platform. According to officials, the platform has so far helped the government implement and distribute scholarships worth over Rs 2,700 crore. The platform has more than 127 lakh applications, out of which more than 84 lakh applications have also been verified.
National Scholarship Portal (NSP) - Central Schemes
Various departments run under the Government of India run several scholarships to help students pursue their dream academic careers without any financial constraint. Well-known providers in the field of scholarships include the Ministry of Minority Affairs (MOMA), Department of Empowerment of Persons with Disabilities (DEPwD), Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment (MSJE), Ministry of Labor and Employment (MLE), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Tribal Affairs (MTA), Department of Higher Education (DHE), and more.
You can apply for all the scholarships that are being offered by the central government under the Central Scheme section through the National Scholarship Portal. Kindly check the cumulative list of Central NSP Scholarships in the table below.
National Scholarship Portal (NSP) - UGC Schemes
University Grants Commission (UGC) is a premier statutory body of the Government of India functioning under MHRD (Ministry of Human Resource Development). It is established with the objective of coordinating, determining, and maintaining the standards of high It is the authority that accredits universities across India and also provides them with funds. Apart from this, UGC also offers some scholarship schemes for students pursuing college-level education.
National Scholarship Portal (NSP) - AICTE Schemes
Considered a national-level council for technical education and a statutory body, AICTE (All India Council for Technical Education) functions under the Department of Higher Education, MHRD. Operating since 1945, AICTE looks after coordinated development and proper planning for both technical as well as management education systems in India. Despite sanctioning postgraduate and undergraduate programs under specified categories, AICTE also offers several scholarships for students to ensure that financial constraints do not hinder their professional careers. Kindly find the names of those NSP scholarships in the list below.
What is NSP?
NSP (National Scholarship Portal) is a dedicated online scholarship portal that lists several scholarships for students across India to complete their education. It carries a plethora of schemes offered by the central government, state government, and other government institutions like AICTE, UGC, etc. It is a one-stop portal for all government scholarships that provides diverse services ranging from online scholarship application to hassle-free. Distribution of scholarships.
Who can apply for NSP Scholarship?
All the NSP scholarships are being provided by various departments working under the Government of India and other state governments. Thus, the eligibility criteria may differ for each NSP scholarship. Kindly check individual scholarships to know their eligibility criteria. These scholarships are for class 1 to 12 students, undergraduate, postgraduate, PhD., and postdoctoral students. Also, you can find scholarships for SC, ST, OBC, EBC, and minority communities in the list available.
Rohit 😊
submitted by scholarship2001 to u/scholarship2001 [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 11:41 thejoshway Luton Sensible Transfers - Forwards

Sensible transfers – Striker
Welcome to the final edition of my ‘Sensible Transfers’ series, where I analyse what I believe to be realistic transfers (to varying degrees) for Luton Town FC ahead of the 2023/24 Premier League season. In this post we discuss the striker position. Morris and Adebayo were a formidable partnership in the Championship last year, but the Premier League will require some serious competition, with goals crucial to Luton’s survival. In my first article I identified the need for a Premier League-ready striker that can challenge for the starting XI. This list includes some ‘first-choice’ picks I believe are realistic, and some ‘wildcard’ picks that I think would be nice but are less realistic for one reason or another.
First-choice
Joël Piroe been sensational since he joined Swansea, scoring 41 goals and providing a further 8 assists in an average Swansea side since joining two seasons ago. With a year left on his deal, Swansea may look to turn a profit on him before he leaves on a free transfer. Their loss would be Luton’s gain, as Piroe has proved he’s Premier League quality.
Fran Navarro was touted for great things as a prospect at Valencia, but it took a move to Portugal for him to discover his goalscoring ability. The striker scored 17 goals and provided 3 assists in 34 Liga Portugal appearances this year, which equates to over 60% of Gil Vicente’s goals this year. Should he be able to replicate even half of that in the Premier League, it could be the difference between relegation and survival. He would likely be expensive, with transfermarkt estimating his value at over £6m.
Jean-Philippe Krasso has earned a big move after setting Ligue 2 alight this season. He’s been responsible for approximately half of St. Etienne’s goals, scoring 16 and contributing 12 assists. Whilst not proven at the top level, his ability to both score and provide will land him somewhere especially as he’s available on a free transfer. Further, his physical profile means he will seamlessly fit into Rob Edwards’ system.
Similarly, Josh Maja has scored 16 and assisted 6 more for Bordeaux in Ligue 2. He’s no stranger to English football, having scored 3 goals in that poor Fulham side that got relegated a few years ago. He’s also out of contract and has been linked with the likes of Rangers. As a free transfer he’s worth a punt, with a lot of upside at 24 years of age.
Cedric Itten has found form moving away from Rangers back to his native Switzerland. He’s had a sensational season for Young Boys, scoring 19 and assisting a further 8 in 31 Swiss Super League this season. Additionally, his 6’3 stature means he has the physical profile to fit our style of play. With transfermarkt giving him a market value estimation of £3m, he could be worth a punt.
Tasos Douvikas has been in sensational form this season, scoring 19 goals and registering 4 more assists for FC Utrecht in the Netherlands this season. Further, his physicality would lend itself to our style of play. Eredivisie strikers always come with a warning attached, you could be buying Luis Suarez or you could be buying Alfonso Alves. At an estimated value of £5m, the recruitment department would have to do their due diligence to make sure he’s a good fit for the club.
Wildcards
David Datro Fofana is another unknown quantity at Chelsea. With Chelsea looking to sign a forward or two, he could be available to take on loan. He’s in this wildcard section as who knows what Chelsea will do this summer, but his quality is clear, scoring 15 goals in 24 Eliteserin games before Chelsea paid £12m to take him from Norway.
Ayase Ueda scored 24 goals in 39 Jupiler Pro League appearances for Cercle Brugge this season. That’s a sensational haul for a mid-table side, and demonstrates great goal-scoring prowess for a 24 year old. Despite this, and the fact he’d be available for only a few million (transfermarket values him at ~£3m), his slight frame might not suit the physical nature of the Premier League or our style of play.
Jonson Clark-Harris scored 26 goals and registered a further 4 assists for Peterborough in League One this season. That’s an impressive goal return, but no indication that he’ll be able to match that form in the Premier League. Peterborough are keen to move him on, so could be worth a punt as backup. He’s probably not Premier League quality, but I had to include him as I’ve wanted him at Luton for a long time. It’s a bit cruel that now he’s available we’ve been promoted!
submitted by thejoshway to COYH [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 03:30 Negative_Penalty_459 No set list? I’ll start one (been MIA, just started a new job)

Pre show jams (me) - Honky Red, WSMFP - For What it’s Worth, Buffalo Springfield - Blue Ridge Cabin Home, Flatt & Scruggs - Lawnchair, The Talismen - Rollin in my Sweet Baby’s Arms, Stanley Brothers
CHECKINS: AL, CO, Delta, FL, GA, IL, IN, KY, NY, OR, WI, WV
Start: 8:17pm CT
SET 1: 1. Bronzeback> 2. Secrets, 3. This Old World, 4. Dig a Little Deeper in the Well (Roger Bowling, Jody Emerson)> 5. DUSTTTTTT, 6. Nothing’s Working, 7. Hello, City Limits (Johnny Elgin, Benny Martin)> 8. New Camptown Races (Frank Wakefield), 9. Love and Regret, 10. Taking Wata, 11. Pickin instrumental 12. MMATC (lost service halfway through this damn it)
End: 9:27pm CT
Break jams (me) - GDTRFB, Dead 6/9/76 - My Florida Sunshine, Bill 4/21/23 - No Rain, M.O.E. 5/28/23 (Blind Melon) - Angel from Montgomery, Daniel Donato (John Prine) - On Your Way Down, Little Feat
Start: 9:53pm CT
SET 2: 1. These Old Blues (Larry Sparks), 2. Highwayyyyyy Hypnosisssssss, 3. Hellbenderrrr, 4. Hollow Heart, 5. Sweet Revenge (John Prine), 6. Must be Seven> 7. OLE SLEW FOOOOOOOT, 8. Leaders, 9. Southern Flavor (Bill Monroe)> 10. Everything’s the Same 11. PICKIN UP THE PIECES (WIIIIIIDESPREAAAAAD), 12. Red Daisy, 13. Summertime 14. Pyramid Country> 15. Little Maggie
ENCORE: 1. Catch and Release (Solo Mic, just Bill), 2. Standing in the Need of Prayer (John P. Kee) (Solo Mic, Full band), 3. Ridin the Midnight Train (Ralph Stanley)
END 11:21pm CT
Just made it to the beach. Wish me some luck catching fish, I want some seafood! Safe travels to all who are going home from the show tonight, to the person flying delta, to the person packing up for their road trip, and to those going to Indy. Love y’all! See y’all tomorrow [on reddit]!
submitted by Negative_Penalty_459 to BillyStrings [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 03:30 borkmaster0 Signal Modernization on Culver Line - Part Suspended (F)

In Brooklyn, no F between Church Av and Coney Island-Stillwell Av from Jun 9 - 12, Fri 9:45 PM to Mon 5:00 AM
F trains run between Jamaica-179 St and Church Av, the last stop.
Nearby D, N, Q trains and local buses provide alternate service between Church Av and Coney Island-Stillwell Av.
For direct service between Manhattan/Downtown Brooklyn and Coney Island, take the D, N, or Q instead.
For W 8 St-NY Aquarium, take the Q instead.
Manhattan transfer stations:
Brooklyn transfer stations:
*Only Coney Island-bound N service, Jun 9 - 12.
What's happening?
We're modernizing signals on the Culver Line
submitted by borkmaster0 to nyctransitalerts [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 01:37 DabbyBear [WTS][MA] ASG USW-A1 + mags, APS CAM870 AOW + shells, KC-02 parts, Wii tech Mp9 x2 bundle, 3x Scorpion Evo 3 2020, AKs, UBG local items

Timestamp - 06/09/2023 - ASG USW-A1 Please message me if there is not enough gap between links and you cannot click different timestamps!
Album - 06/09/2023 - Vortex gear
Posts take me ~ one hour to organize, so please tell me if the formatting is fucked!
Album - 06/09/2023 - APS MK1 CAM870 AOW

Album - 06/09/2023 - Stocks for KC-02 (two PMACA)

Timestamp - 05/22/2023 - HSP, Spiritus, Mission Spec gear
Please look at my posts across other markets - I typically mark things as sold, but feel free to ask (about stuff in other posts). I have plenty of flair, but I always use timestamps regardless.
Pushed for swap meets at Ultimate Battlegrounds in Bridgewater, MA and its been finally happening! If you can match value to value, I may be willing to trade as well - lower flair sends item first (or local).
Prices have shifted down since my last post - and I am willing to do BOGO50% off OR buy two, get one free - it will be more for bundles including larger items (don't ask for three mags to get one free).
**PLS READ THIS** \- If you cannot listen to instructions, there's a chance I will not do a sale with you.
  1. MESSAGE MY INBOX.
  2. GO TO NOTICATIONS MESSAGES.
  3. COMMENT ON THE POST AS WELL SO I KNOW YOU ARE NOT BANNED
  4. TYVM
  5. Shipping info below We can discuss shipping based on bundling - shipping will depend on weight/size, but it likely will be $15 or less. CONUS only.
Newly Added:
ASG USWA1 w/ 8 CO2 mags - Timestamp - 06/09/2023 - ASG USWA1 - (same album as above)
Vortex Gear -
APS MK1 CAM870 AOW w/ upgrades - Album - 06/09/2023
Stocks for KC-02 - would prefer selling in person unless there is complete understanding that modification is needed to fit on a KJW Kc-02
Gear:
Plate carrier + Mask Imgur album - https://imgur.com/a/unw0KiX)
Condor LCS Vanquish Armor System - worth around $220-230, selling for $180 shipped/$170 local Gear that I used as back-up that hasn't seen use in a while. Great for someone jumping in who also wants to carry water or has a hpa tank.
Pilot mask (6mm ProShop) - $40 on evike - $30 local only
Additional pictures for HSP, Spiritus, Mission Spec gear shown above (old timestamp)-

KWA MP9 (foregrip model) with a second MP9 (rail model) for parts - old album https://imgur.com/a/k3EsBDh
**Not splitting at this time. Not the mags. Not the adapter.**
If you're building a mp9 from scratch and you're trying to get all of the upgrade parts, you're going to end up spending more than what I am offering here.

Other GBBs - old album https://imgur.com/a/Pbzn0qR
AEGs
ASG Scorpion Evo smg - https://imgur.com/a/PKsSFJD with sold spicy scorpion
ASG Scorpion Evo carbine barrel - https://imgur.com/a/GCR6pOd
Thanks for getting all the way down here! I will likely be bringing these items to the local sale. Here's some items I have, but have not yet taken pictures of because interest is likely very limited.. Most of this stuff would be miserable to ship so I have only included local prices. Message me if you want pictures of any of these items TO BUY LOCALLY IN MA.
Local items - old timestamps
AKs & King Arms PDW Shorty https://imgur.com/a/eSniMhz
Local Items w/o pictures - feel free to reach out for pictures if you're local to UBG
Accessories/attachments
Disclaimer: Please do your own research on these parts. I am not responsible for getting your KC or G-series gbb working 100% after purchasing upgrades. There are no known issues with the upgrade parts, but the stock parts are unknown. I will inspect before sending out. No returns. Prices have already been reduced. Talk to me for negotiating further. Rogueworx KC-02 parts - Please check out Rogueworx's website for these parts. - https://rougeworx.com The bolt carriers and pistons are newer versions than what I have here. If you have a kc-02 and you didn't already know, there is also a discord which proves to be very helpful. Spreadsheet broke so - First number is cost on from Rogeworx/supplier, not including shipping cost from the UK. KC-02 parts album
There are many items here so if it's a stock part I won't be listing the price here (G-series and KC-02). The going rate of most g-series/kc parts will be what jk-army charges but without the shipping cost of shipping from HK. The main purpose for these parts is to help those in desperate need of a fix for their kc and to get rid of these parts. If you want to offer me a lot price for the stock parts, go ahead. G-Series parts - [pictures](https://imgur.com/a/Zpuzvhl) - Plastic slides x2 (One with the trades messed up) - Stock hop-up (G17) with stock barrel and bucking - 3 stock G17 barrels, 2 with stock bucking
Items that I will accept for trading purposes but remember - CASH IS KING
Accessories:
* G-series/AAP-01 mags (boneyard or working)
Airsoft replicas:
Thank you for getting all the way down here. Now please, make sure you send an INBOX MESSAGE to me - do not use the instant chat! Message me and we can talk airsoft - worst I can say is: no thank you.
submitted by DabbyBear to airsoftmarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:32 DohnJunne 5 days in June - (Have I horribly misunderstood Google Maps?)

We're visiting Paris from 19 June to 24 June, and are aiming for a balance of wanders & museums/sights. I also love bookstores, antiques, and unique little shops, so would be grateful for your suggestions!
I'm terrible at geographical logistics, even with Google Maps, so are there ways I could be more efficiently planning routes? Have I packed in too much? Any can't-miss stops I should add or take out? Many thanks in advance for the review!
MONDAY 19 June
TUESDAY 20 June
WEDNESDAY, 21 June
THURSDAY 22 JUNE
FRIDAY 23 JUNE
SATURDAY 24 JUNE



submitted by DohnJunne to ParisTravelGuide [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:28 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:27 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:25 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
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** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
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Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
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You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
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Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
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As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 19:01 WhatCanIMakeToday GameStop's 10-Q DRS Numbers: Bullish

GameStop's 10-Q DRS Numbers: Bullish
GameStop's most recent 10-Q revealed a very interesting and very bullish information with the number of shares held by Cede & Co going down!
GameStop's 10-K filed on March 28, 2023 GameStop's 10-Q filed today, June 7, 2023
As of March 22, 2023, there were 197,058 record holders of our Class A Common Stock. Excluding the approximately 228.7 million shares of our Class A Common Stock held by Cede & Co on behalf of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (or approximately 75% of our outstanding shares), approximately 76.0 million shares of our Class A Common Stock were held by record holders as of March 22, 2023 (or approximately 25% of our outstanding shares. As of June 1, 2023, there were approximately 304,751,243 shares of our Class A common stock outstanding. Of those outstanding shares, approximately 228.1 million were held by Cede & Co on behalf of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (or approximately 75% of our outstanding shares) and approximately 76.6 million shares of our Class A common stock were held by registered holders with our transfer agent (or approximately 25% of our outstanding shares) as of June 1, 2023.
Let's bring back some context from my prior post, GME 10-K: A Turning Point, and expand on it by first charting the history of GameStop's DRS numbers.
https://preview.redd.it/921624w8yt4b1.png?width=4186&format=png&auto=webp&s=746db6cad0a0f8184302302aedf45fffb55e0857
This is beautiful because we're seeing a classic S-curve in our data. Let me draw it for you and explain.
https://preview.redd.it/penl1bndyt4b1.png?width=4248&format=png&auto=webp&s=98f9a915a0e051c534c7d767085de25e88645ef0
An S-curve is very important when considering new ideas. Basically, an S-curve represents how fast an idea spreads. In the beginning, ideas are new and held by only a few so the growth curve is slow. Then, at some point, ideas take off and we see rapid growth. And, finally, there's a saturation point reached where growth slows down again. These "phases of innovation" are well documented:
The adoption rate of innovations is non-linear; it is slow at first, then rapidly rises before flattening out again as it reaches market saturation.
Harnessing the Power of S-Curves
There are many theories of change, but one that is particularly relevant to innovation is centred on the S-curve. It is a way of depicting incremental, disruptive and radical innovation.
...
The S-curve can also be used to depict the diffusion of innovations in a culture over time. First described by Everett Rogers in the early 1960s, diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated and taken up over time. Rogers’ work is important because it emphasises that the innovation itself is not the only determinant of its ‘success’. There must also be communication channels, time and a social system in place to enable the innovation to be used and adopted more and more widely. Rogers also identifies the different categories of adopters: innovators, early adopters, majority (further subdivided into early and late) and laggards (Rogers, 1962).
[Open University: Innovation and the S-curve]
When we look at the DRS numbers, we can see the classic S curve. The key recognition is that some shares were already directly registered before apes figured DRS out. Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, it's obvious that no early whale apes directly registered 5 million shares because apes are generally not that rich. ComputerShared.net even has a Shareholder Distribution chart where you can see that, even now, all apes sampled have fewer than 32,768 shares.
https://preview.redd.it/17ugkzgyot4b1.png?width=1251&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d1dc706135698e4a7a403a4b6b5704c31c9767
While may never know how many shares were held by the ~1,600 record holders in 2021 or who held them, we do know that there were at least 1,600 record holders and they, by definition, held directly registered shares. Then, as of Oct 30, 2021, 5.2M shares were directly registered after a few early apes started direct registering their shares.
As more apes started to directly register their shares, we see a rapid growth phase between 2021 and 2022. After the July 2022 splividend, we start to see DRS numbers tailing off as the idea of DRS matures signifying an acceptance of DRS amongst apes.

Bullish Turning Points

Looking back at the history of DRS numbers, we see two major changes in shareholder reporting: Oct 2021 and March 2023. As I noted before (twice),
These SEC forms are filed every quarter or year and people are lazy. The easiest way to start off a filing is to simply copy the one filed before (i.e., template) and update things like dates and numbers. So why the change? Wut mean?
  • Before Oct 2021, GameStop reported the number of record holders.
  • Between Oct 2021 and Oct 2022, GameStop reported shares directly registered with their transfer agent.
  • March 2023, GameStop reported the number of record holders, number of shares held by Cede & Co, and number of shares held by record holders.
  • June 2023, GameStop reports the number of shares outstanding, number of shares held by Cede & Co, and number of shares held by registered holders with our transfer agent.
The Oct 2021 change is pretty clearly a result of apes directly registering their shares leading to a noticeable increase of directly registered shares.
The March 2023 number is interesting because you'll notice that the Jan 2023 10-K reporting was significantly delayed for nearly two months from the end of Jan (see Jan 29, 2022) to March 22, 2023. This delay suggests the SEC didn't like what GameStop submitted and required GameStop to modify their filing before it became public. I think GameStop was going to put the discrepancy into their 10-K and the SEC said "Uhh, no. Please change that."^[1] (Remember, there shouldn't ever be more shares reported as held than shares outstanding; which is why proxy over voting has been "addressed" by adjusting the vote counts.)
To give you an example of this problem from my prior DD, End Game: DTC and NSCC are screwed as the DTC just proved shareholders should Directly Register Shares (DRS) and End Game Part Deux: Problems at the DTCC plus The Bigger Picture, we saw from 🛏️🛁 bankruptcy filings that their Transfer Agent reported Cede and Co holds more shares (776M) than there are outstanding (739M) -- which should be impossible.
Sources can't be linked (contains the ticker symbol) but can be found in the other sub
If a bankruptcy judge didn't order 🛏️🛁 to file this information with the Court, nobody would ever know that a company has 739M shares outstanding (with some directly registered) while the DTC and DTCC are circulating 776M shares of that company for trading (plus rehypothecation)!
Yet, here we are. And now we understand why the SEC is rushing to push through so many regulations simply to not look as bad when shit hits the fan. ("So, SEC, a bunch of regards on the Internet figured this out with publicly available information and you didn't? Even when the SEC was directly made aware of issues, again?")
Turning back to GME's 10-Q numbers, GameStop reported 76.6M shares held by Registered Holders^[2] and 228.1M shares held by Cede & Co on behalf of the DTCC. We know what ComputerShare, the Transfer Agent, is reporting. But due to the fog of war, we don't know how many shares the DTC and DTCC are circulating for trading or how many beneficially owned rights to shares there are.
What we know and don't know
Which means we can think of GME's 10-Q filing as a sort of CYA. GameStop has put on record there are 228.1M shares recorded by the Transfer Agent (ComputerShare) as allocated to Cede & Co and the DTC/DTCC. As far as GameStop, ComputerShare, and the SEC are concerned, any securities issues after that are problems within the Big Orange Box of BS (Beneficially-owned Shares).
The flattening of the S-curve happened somewhere around Oct 2022 and March 2023 when, all of a sudden, apes only saw an increase of 0.5M shares directly registered in the Oct 2022 DRS number followed by a 4.2M increase in March 2023. I think what happened for the Oct 2022 DRS number is institutions withdrew their ~5M directly registered shares to Cede & Co to (1) try and make it look like apes were leaving and (2) put more shares into Cede & Co for circulation.^[3] A few apes have come up with some recent evidence this could the case (by reviewing the ledger!) per a post on the DRS sub by lawsondt (with confirmation in the comments, 🫡)
https://preview.redd.it/kcottjzra05b1.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=361ce4adaa8b1f58b39c88e0d4113d0b98bf6b47
Remember, apes are generally not whales so there's no way apes started off with 5.2M shares directly registered. On the other hand, institutions have the money to do so and some institutions probably wanted to have shares in their name. But there are no institutions on the list as of April 2023 anymore which strongly suggests apes are amazing regards who directly registered more shares than the institutions pulled out.
And now, institutions are out of directly registered shares. No more DRS rug pulls.

The Number of Shares Held By The DTC Is Consistently Shrinking

So when I look at the 71 calendar days between March 28, 2023 and June 7, 2023 (49 trading days), ComputerShare recorded 600k more shares held by registered ownership. That's 8,000+ shares per calendar day or 12,000+ shares per trading day removed from the BS box and locked away.
This is what the power of slow and steady erosion looks like
Cede & Co's holdings are consistently shrinking and institutions no longer have any directly registered shares.
IMPORTANT POINT ABOUT BENEFICIAL SHARES (BS)
According to the SEC, beneficial rights to shares held by the DTC are split amongst all the beneficial shareholder interests.
Each participant or pledgee having an interest in securities of a given issue credited to its account has a pro rata interest in the securities of that issue held by DTC.
[SR-DTC-2003-02 34-47978 (June 4, 2003)]
From another DD, Estimating Excess GME Share Liquidity From Borrow Data & Churn Factor, I covered a 2010 IMF Working Paper (The (sizable) Role of Rehypothecation in the Shadow Banking System) that found rehypothecation in the shadow banking system resulted in a churn factor of 4.
https://preview.redd.it/5kv4pllbxv4b1.png?width=1368&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2c76ac21a828fbe7aca78b4ac1517c36e671288
A churn factor of 4 means each GME share is rehypothecated into 4 beneficial rights to 1 GME share. Thus, according to the SEC, each GME share in a brokerage is worth 1/4 of what you think it's worth. Less if the churn factor is higher. (Easily higher as some countries have no limits on rehypothecation.)
Simply changing how shares are held from beneficially-owned shares (BS) to directly registered shares (DRS) automatically increases how much of the Company you own. This is true for any Company where shareholders may suspect the DTC has more shares on their books or in circulation than they should. With the shadow banking system rehypothecating assets around in circles, it's likely every BS share traded under the DTCC is worth less a DRS counterpart. Thus, every shareholder is basically incentivized to own a bigger portion of each Company by simply Direct Registering Shares to get more ownership for the same price. Which is exactly what the DTC and SEC said shareholders should do:
DTC pointed out that if beneficial owners believe that their interests are best protected by not having their shares subject to book-entry transfer at DTC, then they can instruct their broker-dealer to execute a withdrawal-by-transfer, which will remove the securities from DTC and transfer them to the shareholder in certificated form.
SR-DTC-2003-02 34-47978 (June 4, 2003)
If I get 4x more ownership by executing a DRS withdrawal-by-transfer out of the DTC, then clearly the DTC is not protecting my interests and I should execute a DRS withdrawal-by-transfer as suggested by the DTC and SEC.

BACK TO THE S-CURVE

Remember: adoption rate is non-linear. Meaning all the comments about it taking 84 years to lock the float at this rate are irrelevant because they assume a constant linear DRS rate at the current 8,000+ per calendar day (12,000+ per trading day) rate.
Instead, we should consider the current 8,000+ per calendar day (12,000+ per trading day) rate as a floor for what apes are accomplishing as a baseline. Progress and adoption are typically a series of S-curves as ideas are spread, adopted by a group, reach maturity in that group, spread more, adopted by others, reach maturity in the new group, and spread more again.
https://www.open.edu/openlearn/nature-environment/organisations-environmental-management-and-innovation/content-section-1.7
As a baseline, the current 8,000+ per calendar day (12,000+ per trading day) is phenomenal because these shares are getting locked away every single day despite everything Wall St has tried including:
  • incredibly high inflation taking away money from investments for living expenses,
  • media constantly bashing meme stocks, and
  • an endless stream of rule proposals and comments from the financial industry designed to screw retail investors.
I look forward to upcoming S-curves increasing our DRS numbers as more people learn about how our markets function. I know it will happen because it is inevitable. As shares are directly registered with the Transfer Agent, fewer shares will be held by the DTC which reduces the value of the remaining beneficial shares. And, in order to keep the price down, more beneficial rights to the shrinking number shares held by the DTC will be sold which further dilutes the value of those BS shares. As the ownership gain from directly registering shares increases, more shares will be directly registered which further speeds up this virtuous cycle (a virtuous cycle is like a vicious cycle, but for good things).
The incentives and self-interests align in such a way that the invisible hand ensures people will DRS as they learn it's more valuable to them.
Thank you to every ape out there contributing to this shared knowledge base. From the lit buildings at midnight to the memes and the amazing DD, including the relentless and rigorous peer review^[4], we are all educating each other about how our securities markets function.
[1] This theory is also consistent with some Trust Me Bro that I speculated about.
[2] Why the change from "record holders" to "registered holders"? Maybe this is to address the confusion around the Heat Lamp Theory? From the context, I suspect Book or Plan are both counted by ComputerShare as Directly Registered Shares falling under the "Registered-ownership shares" category on ComputerShare's FAQ.
[3] Notably, if you consider an adjustment for the Oct 2022 onwards numbers for the shares institutions pulled out, you'd get a much cleaner and smoother transition at the top with +5.5M, +4.2M, +0.6M and so on... which makes for a prettier S-curve that one might expect to see.
[4] Let's be realistic, it's the Internet. We're all basically like this
https://preview.redd.it/rnzqkqi7m05b1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=912087114699d995b1c8d9b52be6429daecb7e81
submitted by WhatCanIMakeToday to Superstonk [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 18:20 justinteeth tonight Drop Up Video: The Show Where Comedians Roast Music Videos returns to Pine Box

Drop Up Video is a unique multimedia experience that features some of New York's best comedians making fun of the music videos that we love to hate.
See a panel of comics forgo their usual acts as we screen music videos they have selected to be critiqued, examined, and celebrated.
The playlist of videos will be a surprise but expect some old favorites, some deep cuts, and some oddities. Featuring comedians seen on Comedy Central, HBO, and more! Hosted by Justin Thompson (Doug Loves Movies, BET)
Featuring:
Tim McLaughlin (Fox)
Will Foskey (JFL)
Christiana Jackson (NY Comedy Festival)
Tyler Snodgrass (Take This Pod and Shove It)
Taylor Rodgers (The Hard Times)
Annie Lockwood (311 Cruise)
Tickets: $5 adv / $10 day of (No Drink Minimum!) https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/drop-up-video-the-show-where-comedians-roast-music-videos-tickets-618217564377?aff=r
Pine Box Rock Shop
12 Grattan St, Brooklyn, NY 11206, USA
Turn On. Tune In. Drop Up.

submitted by justinteeth to Brooklyn [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 18:05 justinteeth tonight Drop Up Video: The Show Where Comedians Roast Music Videos returns to Pine Box

Drop Up Video is a unique multimedia experience that features some of New York's best comedians making fun of the music videos that we love to hate.
See a panel of comics forgo their usual acts as we screen music videos they have selected to be critiqued, examined, and celebrated.
The playlist of videos will be a surprise but expect some old favorites, some deep cuts, and some oddities. Featuring comedians seen on Comedy Central, HBO, and more! Hosted by Justin Thompson (Doug Loves Movies, BET)
Featuring:
Tim McLaughlin (Fox)
Will Foskey (JFL)
Christiana Jackson (NY Comedy Festival)
Tyler Snodgrass (Take This Pod and Shove It)
Taylor Rodgers (The Hard Times)
Annie Lockwood (311 Cruise)

Tickets: $5 adv / $10 day of (No Drink Minimum!)
https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/drop-up-video-the-show-where-comedians-roast-music-videos-tickets-618217564377?aff=r
Pine Box Rock Shop
12 Grattan St, Brooklyn, NY 11206, USA
Turn On. Tune In. Drop Up.

submitted by justinteeth to Bushwick [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 16:10 e4109c Ventura on 5900X + 6900XT @ MSI Gaming Plus

Ventura on 5900X + 6900XT @ MSI Gaming Plus

hackerman.png
After a few hours of fiddling I got my setup working.
I've installed Gentoo and Arch before, but I think this one was definitely a bit more challenging than those. Fun nonetheless, especially when it all finally works.
I followed the EXCELLENT guide by Dortania, big props for that. Everything mostly worked out of the box even though there was some trial and error involved (mostly because I suck at reading).
I am getting a Fenvi FV-T919 PCIe WiFi/BT Adapter BCM94360CD to get Bluetooth working as well.
So far, the only thing that does not seem to work is my USB DAC (Topping EX5). The audio stutters, something I also encountered on Linux. To my surprise it also doesn't work on my M2 MacBook Pro. So, until Apple fixes the issue, I will connect to it through Bluetooth instead.
My webcam (Insta360 Link) works OK, it doesn't get its full resolution.
GeekBench scores:
1852 single core, 10401 multicore
Metal: 217916
CPU: 5900X GPU: 6900XT RAM: 32GiB Motherboard: MSI B550 Gaming Plus Audio Codec: N/A Ethernet Card: Realtek RTL8111H Wifi/BT Card: N/A Touchpad and touch display devices: N/A BIOS revision: E7C56AMS.1B2 
submitted by e4109c to hackintosh [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 09:41 Gattusso02 Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak

Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak

https://preview.redd.it/jgcbfg5l4y4b1.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b5564ab5919648f23473b3f0d7c2b397b5928c8
Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak
Time: 200 hrs +
100% Clear: 400 hrs +
Difficulty: 7.5/10
The Monster Hunter franchise returns with the previously Nintendo exclusive finally getting its release on PlayStation. Prepare for one long, grindy and fulfilling ride collecting monster crowns all over again. This guide will now include the massive Sunbreak DLC complete with new monsters and better end game gear to make your platinum or 100% completion more efficient.
Trophy Guide
Powerpyx Trophy Guide for Monster Hunter Rise
Powerpyx Trophy Guide for Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak
Full credit to Powerpyx for the guides.
Wiki Guides
https://game8.co/games/Monster-Hunter-Rise
https://monsterhunterrise.wiki.fextralife.com/Monster+Hunter+Rise+Wiki
Credit to Game8 and Fextralife for the excellent wikis. Game8 has the more comprehensive guide complete with locations on where to farm certain items, along with equipment builds and other very useful information. Best to choose one of those builds as your base and swap out armors and skills along the way to find the build perfect for you. Fextralife has a more tabulated approach on the info that helps you get a quick glance on what you are looking for with lesser clicks but may have only concise information compared to Game8. For example, If you are looking for an item drop from a small monster, Fextralife will show you drop rates and which map to visit for your hunt. Game8 will give you a little more and show you the areas in the map where these small monsters are located.
Intro
If you're a beginner to the game or the series in general, the beginning sections and tutorials will naturally be quite overwhelming. Take things one step at a time, find a weapon that fits your play style best and enjoy the ride until you get a decent amount of monster hunts in to familiarize yourself with the game.
There will be tons of things to tweak and learn about on this game and no single article can give justice to the complexities of how to fully optimize your experience so additional research is recommended. Treat this article as a supplementary guide.
Efficiency Tips
Enjoy the story and progress through the main quest line as soon and as often as you can. The reason for this is as you progress through the story and your hunter rank increases, more equipment upgrades will be available to you along with the ability to upgrade the base defense of your gear further which unlocks incrementally as you increase in rank. The more defense you have means the more hits you can take and less healing items you consume which you can spend learning the monsters moves and hitting it.
Work on the 🏆 Beat-up Construction Kit as soon as possible and unlock all camp site locations on each map so you can fast travel conveniently closer to your target's location.
Materials List and Locations can be found here on Game8 to search for your gear and quest requirements. Browse it or simply drop the item you are looking for on the search bar.
Blights and Status Ailments Explained and their Cures is explained best in GadgetGabe's Top Voted answer from this GameFAQs forum. Use this wisely to cure yourself ASAP and stay at tip top shape for your fight. You can eventually customize your item load outs when hunting particular monsters.
Register an inventory and radial menu layout that is best for your hunt and tweak it accordingly if you are working on a solo hunt or are in a group. You can set up your action bar (the bar that uses the left and right d-pad) too.
Learn about monster elemental and ailment weaknesses, weak points and parts that you can sever to improve your success rate in a fight. E.g. Flash bombs work well on monsters in flight. Severing a Pukei-pukei's tail makes the monster incapable of it's wide poison gas attack.
Monster Elemental and Ailment Weaknesses and Immunities credit to Pro Game Guides. Monster Hunter Rise explains monster elemental weaknesses well but does not give too much of a description of what elements the monster utilizes against you. To learn that and build the right resistances, refer to the Fextralife MHR Wiki.
As you progress through your hunts, make sure to pick up any hunting helpers and golden/gilded spiribugs along the way. You will need 500 and 1000 respectively for the trophies 🏆 Hunting Helpers Plate and 🏆 Golden Spiribug Plate. If you want to farm Spiribugs exclusively, this video shows an excellent route while displaying some skills on speedy map traversal.
When you are in town, there will be times when you will be prompted that a sale is ongoing from the two merchants. Always take action on this prompt and participate in the lottery that is only available during this sale to progress towards the 12 room decorations you need to win as part of the 🏆 Sturdy Padlock. If the grand prize of the lottery is a room decoration, you have to roll a Jackpot (different from a Bingo) to win it. Even if the grand prize is not a room decoration, you are given a required room decoration for winning 100 items in the lottery.
https://preview.redd.it/umkifupr4y4b1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59415edcabf6cce7231f813358e6ec80bd52d995
https://preview.redd.it/r14333es4y4b1.jpg?width=1640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cacf53afbec816fd78f9567c2dc513e080f83c1d
🏆 Extravagant Cashbox
Awarded for earning 1,000,000 Zenny. The fastest method to earn zenny is by participating in the 2 Star Low Rank Event Quest - Gotta Hoard Fast!. It can be done with a group in 1 minute and rewards you with a Golden Egg which you can sell to the merchant for 20,000z. Use whenever you are short on money. This is also the best quest to use if you want to trigger merchant sales quickly and roll on the lottery.
Using your silk bind/aerial moves to deliver mount damage (indicated by a blue cloud background on the damage inflicted) is a good tactic to learn and master. Arekkz Gaming's Monster Riding Tutorial video explains this well. You can also scout the area where you mount the monster and bump him into special areas on the map that will deal extra damage.
High Rank Quests
An Armorcharm and Powercharm will now be available to purchase from the two item merchants. These work as permanent stat increases as long as you have them in your Item Pouch. When you reach HR7, you will eventually be able to upgrade these charms into Armortalon and Powertalon. These stack and you may repurchase Armorcharm and Powercharm and hold all four items in your Item Pouch.
Decorations will unlock from the Smithy and the Melding Pot will unlock from the item merchants. This would be a good time to study the skills you have available in conjunction with your armor skills and start creating defensive/offensive load outs based on what you are up against.
For talisman crafting via the Melding Pot, craft out the desired skill you need and use accordingly. Once you have your talisman of choice, always roll with Melding - Wisp of Mystery and Melding - Rebirth (unlocks last on a higher HR). They will cost more materials to craft, but will also have better chances of a Rarity 7 Talisman with more skills and better decoration slots.
Prepare status resistances/immunities depending on the monsters you are up against and build up defense, elemental defense and even add elemental attack against them as well. Take note that elemental attack increases on skills only increases an existing element on weapons (or elemental ammo for bowguns) and can not create an element from a non-elemental weapon source.
For more on elemental damage and elemental resistances, see Fextralife's articles linked accordingly.
Armorskin and Demondrug and their corresponding Mega version are items consumed once and will last until you faint or complete the quest. Invest in them as soon as you have the zenny to afford them. You will need to farm Pale Extract from the monster Khezu or purchased as a rare find in the Argosy to craft the mega drugs. You may also choose to deploy the meowcenaries to fight a Khezu to increase your item farm.
Master Rank Quests and Sunbreak Content
With Sunbreak comes a whole new base map and two new locations to explore. Like the base game, there are a number of trophies that involve you interacting with the townsfolk and the goods and services they have to offer. Refer to this video guide for a checklist of what you need to be doing after every quest to cover the trophies 🏆 Snowy Cohoot Minipouch, 🏆 Secret Honey Jar, 🏆 Unbreakable Bag, 🏆 Solid Padlock, 🏆Polychrome Acorn and 🏆 Sojourn Necklace.
🏆 Solid Padlock requires another set of items you need to win in the lottery but take note that the Gargolda Statue only starts appearing after you take a picture of it. Take a daytime expedition for a photo of the creature. Gamer Guru's video shows you how to do it.
Refer to Game8's Eurekacorn article for more ways on farming Eurekacorns for your Polychrome Acorn trophy. Efficiency Tip: Target an expedition with a Herb Node in the Frost Islands together with a Khezu Node for both Eurekacorns and Pale Extracts.
For efficient map traversal, unlock the alternative camp sites on the two new Sunbreak areas along with the new buddy recon points. You will have to unlock 2 recon points per map, for a total of 12 for 🏆 Buddy Whistle. Darcblade has an excellent video guide to cover this.
Crown Hunting
🏆 Mini Crown Plaque and 🏆 Gold Crown Plaque will most likely be the last trophies you will get in the game as these are very grindy to obtain. These entail slaying or capturing the smallest and largest versions of each monster, awarding you a gold crown on your Hunter's Notes. An alternative grouped view of all your crowns can be found in OPT -> Multiplayer -> Guild Cards -> View -> L1 for Hunting Log. Unlike MH World, Rise does not include a crown notification in the points reward section after a hunt. You will have to check your Hunter Notes manually. You do get a prompt of "Monster Size Updated" right after the kill or capture though as your best indicator of a possible crown.
Crown Hunting Tips and Drop Rates explained by Luke Albigés of TrueAchievements
Efficient Strategy
You will want to clear out all the crowns you can possibly obtain from the quests with the 100% chance or boosted crown rate quests. For everything else, learn how to crown snipe to save time and not waste too much time on normal sized targets. If your are sure that your target monster is not a crown size, abort your quest and start a new one. Take note that you need to capture/kill 10 monsters of each type for their respective monster scroll to progress on your 🏆 Sturdy Padlock so anything close to a perceived small or large crown would be worth the kill. The Sunbreak Expansion and Master Rank buffs up the crown monsters appearance rate to as high as 10% for large and 6% for minis. You are best saving the crown hunt for last as you have to tackle Anomaly Investigations for the Sunbreak 🏆 Bahari's Hand Wound Birdie, which entails you earning and spending 3000 Investigation Coins as rewards for these type of quests along with clearing out every single Master Rank quest for the 🏆 Record of Utmost Valor - Master and clearing out 1-4 star anomaly quests for the 🏆 Painting - Crimson Nightmare. There are a total of 7 1-star anomaly quests to unlock and 8 quests for 2-4 stars. There is a good chance that you will be earning majority of these crowns along your progression towards these three trophies with minimal crown cleanup.
Videos for Monster Measurements
As of this writing, there seems to be a lack of content on Large and Mini Gold Crowns for MH Rise. Below is video clips to give some clues on how these monster sizes will look when you encounter them. Monster sizes with 100% chance drop quests will be excluded from this segment.
Kiranico has an excellent large monster guide which also displays the recommended quest to participate in with corresponding crown percentages.
Anomaly Investigation quest monsters have fixed sizes and will never yield any crowns. The normal Anomaly Quests will share the same 6% small and 10% large crown chance as the MR quests.
Base Game Crowns
Anjanath Mini Gold Crown
Barioth Large Gold Crown
Barioth Mini Gold Crown
Barroth Mini Gold Crown
Chameleos Large Gold Crown
Chameleos Mini Gold Crown
Great Izuchi Large Gold Crown
Great Izuchi Mini Gold Crown
Ku-Lu-Yaku Large Gold Crown
Ku-Lu-Yaku Mini Gold Crown
Kushala Daora Mini Gold Crown
Lagombi Large Gold Crown
Rakna-Kadaki Large Gold Crown
Rathalos Mini Gold Crown
Royal Ludroth Large Gold Crown
Teostra Large Gold Crown
Teostra Mini Gold Crown
Sunbreak Crowns
There are only 16 additional monsters tied up to the crown trophies for Sunbreak which are the monsters that were available at the original release of the game. You will need these 16 monsters along with all the base game crowns for the 🏆 Miniature Crown Shield and 🏆 Gold Crown Shield to unlock. Refer to the Gold Crown Shield segment of Powerpyx's guide for the full list.
Astalos Large Gold Crown
Aurora Somnacanth Mini Gold Crown
Gore Magala Large Gold Crown
Malzeno Large Gold Crown
Pyre Rakna-Kadaki Large Gold Crown
Scorned Magnamalo Large Gold Crown
Miscellaneous Grind
🏆 Antique Bookmark
Achieved by collecting all 60 Relics scattered over the 5 available maps. Powerpyx's guide for all Relic Locations shows these well. There is a correction to the linked article however, as it is mentioned there that the Rampage Relics unlock after collecting all 10 other Relics per map but is incorrect (unsure what triggers rampage Relic availability but I had access to them at 5 star quest availability on Village and Hub quests). To track the relics you have collected already, go to OPT -> Info -> Hunter Notes -> Notebook.
Gaming with Abyss has good Monster Hunter trophy content and shows locations of each relic per map clearly on his videos.
Shrine Ruins
Frost Islands
Flooded Forest
Sandy Plains
Lava Caverns

Other Useful Information
Affinity vs Raw Damage is discussed well on this steamcommunity forum.
The difference between KO/Stun and Trip is explained will in this article. Note that KO and Stun status are the same (in game and articles call it one or the other so this can be confusing) but Trip status is different.
Critical Boost at level 1 raises damage dealt by critical hits by 5%. Your critical hits are already at a base amplified damage of 25% (not mentioned in-game). This could be deceiving due to the in-game skill definition.
Palamutes and Palicos you bring on the hunt increase your ease and efficiency and are best slotted with the best gear for your playstyle. Game8 has an excellent buddy guide that discusses end game builds.
Use the Basic behavior if you are running a melee focused buddy and Follow if you are using a ranged buddy. This is discussed thoroughly by CheaterMcCheat.
On solo hunts, don't let the common combo of 1 Palico and 1 Palamute mold you to run with that as there are several builds that utilize 2 Palicos or 2 Palamutes in one hunt. For example, you may want to use a double Palamute with C Jelly Travel Bag X weapon on the Best Equipment For Sunbreak (Ranged)segment. Accompanied with the Palamute Silkbinder, this build can provide excellent monster control.
Ordering Motley Mixes in the canteen nets you dango tickets as a reward. Claim it from the chef after some orders and use the tickets with hopping skewers on your harder hunts.
Latent Power skill is triggered by an internal timer upon monster encounter and attack animations and is explained here on Fextralife's wiki.
Auto-shoutouts are useful for your party and even yourself. You can program these auto shoutouts via OPT -> Multiplayer -> Chat Menu -> Triangle and click on the field under Text to program what you want to shout-out, choose the box under speech timing to choose the condition. These conditions aren't fixed and you have more to choose from. The most useful ones are the auto shoutouts for "When you set a trap" and "When a monster is limping" where the monster enters the blue icon state and is capturable if it is not an elder, apex or afflicted monster.
Weapon Specific Notes
Light Bowgun
Light Bowgun Basic Moves and Ammo Types credit to Phemeto
Pay attention to the color of your reticle. An orange reticle tells you that your ammo type is in its ideal range and will deal its intended damage. A yellow reticle means your shots will hit, but will be significantly weaker.
The Fanning Vault Silkbind skill is best used with your Wyvernblast special ammo. Press circle while you are directly under the monster to plant a bomb directly on it. You will be replacing this with the Switch Skill Fanning Maneuver for end game builds.
Ammo Details can be found by going to Items and Equipment (opt button) -> Equipment Info -> Ammo Details (square)
You will normally run out of your full magazine of your most desired ammo. To minimize returning to camp, bring the materials you need to craft that ammo and set it on your radial menu. Also, avoid bringing the ammo type you never use to keep your ammo menu as decluttered as possible for efficient ammo switching. It is encouraged to bind the ammo you use and their craft commands in your radial menu as well.
Recoil is the delay between firing shots (different from Reload delay). Lower recoil = Faster Attack Speed
Deviation is the drift of the bullets when you fire. If you have a weapon with deviation, it will travel center for a medium distance then swerve to the L or R depending on the strength of the deviation. Targeting "No deviation" is ideal.
Decorations can be crafted to reduce Reload, Recoil and Deviation.
Light Bowgun Weapon & Armor Skills
Bombardier skill does not work with any ammos, including sticky, cluster, or wyvernblast.
Normal/Rapid Up skill improves Normal Ammo damage by 5%/10%/20% and stacks with the skill
Rapid Fire Up which enhances rapid fire damage also by 5%/10%/20%
Great Sword
Recommended Switch Skills are Tackle, Rage Slash (RS), and Adamant Charged Slash (ACS). All three can tank monster attacks (no knockbacks) and negates roar effects. Tackle is the bread and butter during roars and quick monster attacks since its easy to trigger, You can use Adamant Charged Slash for positioning, and Rage Slash to land your last charged attack on your desired direction, which True Charged Slash Skill cant do.
How to Unlock:
Adamant Charged Slash - Unlocked by crafting/upgrading 8 different Greatswords, no duplicates. Replaces the Hunting Edge skill.
Rage Slash - Unlocked by completing the quest "Grasp the Greatsword" (HR5 Quest). Replaces the True Charged Slash skill.
Low Rank Entry GS - Crit Eye Build
Low Rank GS - Crit Draw Build - 80% Affinity on Overhead and Charged Slash
High Rank GS Build - 90% Affinity on Weakpoints + Focus 3
Several members of the PSTHPH team contributed to the making of this guide.
There is an ongoing issue with this article preventing further edits. Please check the comments for more.
submitted by Gattusso02 to PSTrophyHuntersPH [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 05:30 Davess_World2019 Hagwon Blacklist Toyko John's Blacklist Site

After 4 years, these get deleted at Toyko John's Blacklist Site, but before they do, here is a "who's who" of Hagwons who made the list, posted in chronological order from January 1, 2016 ~ Jan 6. 2023.
See a list of blacklisted schools posted on this site here.
As a bonus, if you want to know what was posted about a hagwon, I have copied every comment from Toyko Jon into a Microsoft Word file. If you want to retrieve it from the memory hole, send me a message and I send you the complete complaint. *Some I have failed to copy before they were removed.
Memory Hole
*NOTE: Although some of these will be dated, by a couple of years in some cases, my experience is, "People rotate in and out of jobs, but cultures don't change." Koreans stay on he job for years, not rotate through like foreigners do.
Learn about toxic cultures and human behavior with animation: THE MONKEY/STEPLADDER EXPERIMENT
------------------------------------------------------------
Continued here.
RISE Mapo-gu Campus Jan 6. 2023
AHEV (Ansan Hwajeong English Village) Dec 31. 2022
PEAI Daechi/Seocho and iSpeak Dec 22. 2022
IYA Skola/ Hillside Collegiate (Wirye) Dec 12. 2022
Altiora-gangseo/SLS Dec. 7. 2022
Bucheon Rise Dec 4. 2022
Poly-Eunpyung gu Campus Nov 30. 2022
American Stem Prep Nov 29. 2022
Plum Academy/ FTK / FTK Jamwon Nov 22. 2022
Sequoia Hagwon Jeju Nov 21. 2022
Cheongshim Language Institute in Bucheon Nov 18. 2022
St Paul American Scholars, Gwangyo Branch Nov 5. 2022
Pinewood, Misa, Hanam,Gyeonggido Oct 31. 2022
YBM ECC Gimpo Oct 31. 2022
POLY, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul Oct 27. 2022
Global kids Korea haeundae Busan Oct 19. 2022
Hillside Collegiate Songdo Oct 16. 2022
Walnut Global Education, Seoul Oct 14. 2022
GBA Academy or Dream I Kindergarden, in Goyang Oct 12. 2022
TCIS (Thinking Christian International School) Sep 3. 2022
Sage's English Academy (SEA) Sep 9. 2022
Chungdahm Learning aka Creverse Sep 17. 2022
ComoBlanc/ Dreamberry Sep 22. 2022
Worwick Franklin Institute, Ok-dong, Ulsan Aug 21.2022
JM Academy in Seoul Aug 20.2022
JM Academy in Seoul Aug 15.2022
Spol English Institute Gimhae, Oxford Academy Gyerong, Eunbit Kindergarten Ansan, EiE Korea Hwaseong Aug 11.2022
Little Fox English Academy Hyeokshindoshi and Wansan in Jeonju Aug 9. 2022
FTK Songdo Branch Aug 7. 2022
ReadingStar International Aug 4.2022
FTK English East Pangyo, Bundang, Seongnam Aug 1. 2022
Lion English, Gajwa, Seoul Jul 28.2022
Milestone Institute Seocho Branch Jul 26.2022
Gwanak SLP and DYB Choi-sun Sangdo Jul 26.2022
ILS JEJU Jul 25.2022
CLS- Children's Language Academy Jul 19.2022
Welltain Christian International School (WCIS) in Cheong-na Jul 19.2022
Geniplus in Seocho Jul 16.2022
ELL Academy, Incheon Jul 15.2022
Bibakids Jul 7.2022
Infocus English Academy in Wonju, South Korea Jun 28.2022
Bay Hills International Language Institute Jun 24.2022
Altiora EDS and English Revolution Hagwon in Gwangmyeong Jul 1, 2022
DAKS Language Academy Gwangmyeong Campus Jul 1, 2022
Simson Bibakids Jun 29, 2022
Bay Hills International Language Institute Jun 28, 2022
Evening Class/Kids Class, Pyeongtaek Jun 27, 2022
Ian School, GLITT, Children's Musical Company Jun 24, 2022
YBM ECC Dongnae Jun 16, 2022
YBM ECC Dongnae, Busan Jun 16, 2022
American Stem Prep Jun 4, 2022
DOCS Language Academy in Gwangmyeong Jun 4, 2022
SLP and DYB Cheonan May 29,2022
GE English Academy in Ilsan May 22, 2022
HILLSIDE COLLEGIATE HAEUNDAE May 19, 2022
DUX Literature Academy, Daechi May 17, 2022
EASM Academy- Changwon May 17. 2022
ComoBlanc / DreamBerry - Songdo May 17, 2022
SLP Ulsan Namgu May 16, 2022
Edupro Haba in Songpa-gu May 12, 2022
Wonderland Kindergarten, Jukjeon, Daegu May 12, 2022
YBM ECC Dongnae May 11, 2022
Gimpo Sau/Janggi Chungdahm May 11, 2022
BILLION EDUCATION/BILLION KID May 11, 2022
Docs Academy in Gwangmyeong May 8, 2022
YMB ECC Dongdaemun May 6, 2022
DOCS Academy Beagot – Siheung May 4, 2022
FTK Bucheon May 3, 2022
Cheonan SLP May 2, 2022
Wizville Langauge Institut May 2, 2022
Hillside Collegiate/Iya Skola in Songdo Incheon Apr 20, 2022
Prairie English Academy in Gimpo Apr 20, 2022
DOCS Academy, Siheung Apr 15, 2022
Frage English Institute, Suseong-gu, Daegu
Jamsil C-GATE
Cheongna SLP in Seogu, Incheon
KidsWiz in Nowon
DOCS academy baegot in siheung
Jungchul language Institute Cheongju-si
DUX
EOS Wingsly School, Yeongtong, Suwon, South Korea
Maplebear Gimpo
Iya Skola Ulsan
Francis Parker Collegiate in Bundang
HABA League Academy in Anyang
JK English Academy, Jinhae
FTK GuriDasan branch
Ilsan POLY
EASM Language Institute - Changwon, Gyeongsangnamdo
JM English
Welcome World English in Suwon
SPEP
American Stem Prep Aspk/aspj in Yongin
Singapore International School - Gwangju
Gangnam English Academy (GEA) in Sinsa-Dong
JM Academy
Dongah Institute/Yongin
Children's Musical Company, Ian School, GLITT
Kid's College Suseong Daegu
RISE Yeouido
Avalon English
The GENIUS Academy in DAEGU
Milestone Institute Seocho branch
Ballet Model in Gangnam
Milestone Institute in Daechi, Seoul
Dux in Daechi
Rise Bundang
Miller English School - Hwa-jeong, Goyang-si
SOT (School of Tomorrow) Gwanakgu campus
JM Academy in Seoul
SLP Ulsan Nam-gu branch
Wizville Language Institute in Yeonhui-dong Seodaemun
The Genius Academy in Daegu
EiE Yeoju
SLP Uijeoungbu
Little Fox Daechi in Gangnam, Seoul
SLP Ansan
SLP Yeongdeungpo
Avalon English, Yeongtong
DOCS School Gwangmyeong
Little America
ECC Gwangsan, Gwangju
NamDongtan ECC
Bucheon POLY
L Bridge or L khan, or U2m school located in Hwaseong or Dongtan 2
ICEV
CL Education Pyeongchon
MICA International Scholars, Yongin
Milestone Institute Seocho
Kingspledu, Jeju
WCK English Academy
IGS
Avalon English Yongsan-gu
BNK Academy Nowon-gu
RISE Pyeongchon
Sejong igarten
Ballet and Model in Gangnam
Daegu Gyeongbuk English Village (Yueungjin University)
Nooree Education, Daegu, Korea
Francis Parker Collegiate branch in Haeundae, Busan
Icare hagwon in Seogwipo
SPEP
Cheonan Buldang Altiora
Dongah Institute/ Yongin
Red Wagon English School in Bundang
MLC formerly known as Maplebear Sejong Campus
Ecole d'art Language Institute - Changwon, Gyeongsangnamdo
JB (Jeongbal) Poly
Winny Winny Wonheung, Goyany.
YBM PINE
Gangnam English Academy
PEEC pyeongtaek English Education Center
YLC (Yulgok Language Center) in Gimcheon.
Samhyook Elementary School- Wonju South Korea.
Kangnam Pride Institute in Gangdong-gu, Seoul
American Stem Prep - Formerly St. Paul Kinder
ALITORA- ILSAN (SIKSA-DONG)
YMB ECC Dongdaemun
Altiora Jeju / WeGrow Academy
DOCS in Gwangmyeong
Wizville Yeonhui-dong
POLY Gwangmyeong
Poly in Haeundae, Busan
BNK (Banana Kids) Nowon
Gangnam English Academy (GEA)
EASM academy in Changwon
Little Fox Centum in Busan
YBM ECC DAECHI
KINGSPLEDU English Kindergarten, Jeju
Cheongshim based in Bucheon
YBM C-GATE in Apgujeong
JP English School
Badasoop English Village, Sejong City
Chungdahm- Mokdong 2 Campus
BCIS Education Paju
FastONE GangnamSeoul, South Korea
Banana Kids School in Uijeongbu, South Korea
CIS (Canada International School) Uijeongbu
JM English in Songpa
Cheonan SLP
VIS English in Yeouido. AKA Little Socie in Yeouido
Poly Seodaemun campus
Rise schools, Wirye Campus
Daejeon Worwick
Bay Hills Reggio Emilia International English Academy
YBM ECC Seongbuk
HILLSIDE COLLEGIATE HAEUNDAE
YBM ECC Gimpo
Little Fox Deungchon school
Global Kids Korea, Busan
SEED International School
Badasoop English Village. Sejeong city
JLS Academy (Seosan-Si)
SLP Jeonju-si oppisite Emart
SPEP/The Princeton Review/In Times In
April/Chungdham in Suwon (jeongjadong)
Bucheon Sunny School
TKLeaders English, Busan
Seodaemun Poly
Milestone Institute (MI)
Altoria in Jamsil
Oxford Language School in Cheongju
Kids College Walker Hill Guuu
Maple Bear Pyeongchon
Fast one and Dux academy
YBM Seoul (Adult Division)
Chungdahm CDI April Ulsan Branch
YBM Adult division
TASK English in Cheonan, Chungnam
Sejong Poly
JM English Academy in Songpa
MPoly Dongnae, Busan
Hanseo University
RISE Yeouido
Iya skola, Seoul
Little River Day School
GSI Cheongna and GSI Ilsan (Global Standard English Institute)
Feinschule, Gyeyang-gu (near jakjeon), Incheon
Sahm Yook Elementary School
ILCE (I Love Clover English), Daejeon, South Korea
R&R English Academy Gwangyang Jeollanamdo
Winnie Education, Ilsan
Gyeyang Global Language Center in Incheon
ARA in Jeonju
Apgujeong GATE
Seocho SLP
Gyeongsang National University (GNU), City of Jinju
Masan Poly Korea School
Cheonggu Ehwa
POLY Cheongna Campus
Ara Academy, Jeonju, South Korea
Kids Club in Yeonje-gu Busan
Norian School in Dunggu Usan
FASTONE ENGLISH (Gwanghwamoon)
Singapore International School - Gwangju
Lighthouse International School, Ilsan
Wizville Yeonhui-dong
Big Heart Christian School
MPOLY - Seo-gu, Daejeon
Thinking Child School (TCS) in Busan
Gyeyang Global Language Center. Incheon, Gyeyanggu
Dux
Little scholar academy
Incheon English Village(ICEV)
Multicampus Education Co
Paedea Plus
GE English Academy in Ilsan
Gyeyang Global Language Center. Incheon
One By One in Apgujeong, Seoul
Suwon campus - DYB Choisun
Dux Apgujeong
MICA International School (not an accredited international school)
POLY Bucheon
Geumho Little Fox Language Center Jeonju
Avalon English Academy - Mokpo Campus
N.IVY, Daegu, in Dalseogu
GRAPE, Daegu, Suseongu
Jones International Christian Studies
Suwon Global Village
ECC Bukgu Daegu
Future Education, Seoul
ING English in Wirye/Hanam/Seongnam
English Book Ladder - Joengja Bundang v
ILS in Hanam city
Songdo International Kindergarten
Guro Wonderland Language Institute
Creative Children's Learning Center, in Seoul
Inje English Village
Avalon, Suji
Jungchul Seochang Campus
Little America Academy in Gimpo
SPEP: QUICK FACTS Speaking Proficiency Enhancement Program, Apgujeong, Seoul
CDI Gimhae Jangyu branch
Grace Academy in Migeum
CDI/ Chungdham Sangin, Daegu
CIS/NAIS/Canada International School- Uijeongbu
EIE/IBC English Town in Daegu
Gangnam English Academy in Sinsa-dong, Seoul
Korea POLY School Suwon Campus
Kids Club Willy Campus
Paedeaplus Icheon
Chungdahm Institute Yeongtong
DUKE English Literature Academy Daechi
iChristmas Korea in Seocho-gu
CDI Songdo Branch
Avalon Yongin campus
Gwangmyeong SLP
SEODAEMUN POLY
Kids College Pyeongtaek
Elan Preparatory in Mokdong
Poly Mokdong campus, Seoul
Jungchul English Academy Geoje
CDI Chungdahm Daejeon Review
Chungdahm Learning (CDI) Incheon Cheongna Branch
Gangnam English Academy (GEA), Apgujeong
LIA Seocho
Wingsturn Kindergarten/Academy near Sindang
Norian Kindergarten, Dong-gu, Ulsan
Korea Christian International School, Yeong-deung dong
Jung Chul academy
Redwagon Academy
English Book Ladder, near Jeongja
Roy's English Academy in Songjeong-dong, Gumi
Mapo Youth CenteKEST
Hwajeong POLY
TOPLY English Institute, Bucheon
Junggye POLY
Daegu Chungdahm/April
SLP Gwanak-Gu
JC English School in Jecheon
ABC LEARNING CENTER in Haendang
Pyeongtaek English Education Centre
Lighthouse English Center, Hagwi
SOT (school of tomorrow) in Seocho
Global Aviation college
English Kindergarten, just outside Migeum & Dongcheong-dong in Bundang/Suji
5 Touch Language in Giheung, Yongin
Triple A English Academy near Seohyeon Station in Bundang
Worwick Franklin Institute - Wirye (New town/ Shindoshi)
Kaylee English School in Cheonan
SPEP/One-Stop Prep, Based Out of Gangnam in Seoul
Bambini Edu in Songpa
Avalon, Tae Jon Dong, Gwangju, Gyeonggi-do
Worwik franklin institute Ulsan
Gimpo POLY, Seoul
Songdo International Language Center (SILC) in Songdo, Incheon
Nagwon Feinschule Hagwon in Bonseon-dong in Nam-gu, Gwangju
Dr.Jung E Class - Gwangjin-Gu Branch v
Gyeongsang National University
Dongtan kids College
Daegu, Sangin April/CDI
iSponge branch located in Geomdan Sageori
Jungchul Academy, Cheolsan Dong, Gwangmyeong
Banana Kids school, Uijeongbu, South Korea
SLP Jungnang
Evine (Junggye-dong branch in Nowon-gu).
Brain Talk English Academy, Mokpo/Namak
Dongrae Yonje SLP in Sajik, Busan
I-garten in Cheongdahm
Kim & Lee Language Institute in Suwon
International Language School (ILS), Bongdam-eup
Talkster Waegook Hagwon in Suwon, Gyeonggi-do
Aphabet Street School in seoho
Edu Pro in Bangi Dong
JLEE Preparatory, Bundang area
GrapeTree Academy/GrapeTree English Learning Center, Gangdong gu, Gildong, Seoul
Chungdahm Institute I-Garten (formally IDEA KIDS ASSETS) Cheongdam, Seoul
KJC21 hagwon, Jangyu, Gimhae
Bono language world- Gumi, Okgye-dong
Chungdahm Institute in Uijeongbu
International Life Long Learning Center in Yeonsu-Dong, Incheon
Prime Academy (Prime Junior) in Yeonhui-dong, Seoul
Noumena Education Initiative - Gangnam, Seoul
Cambridge Institute in Gangnam
Pagoda, Gangnam Branch
NY English Studio, Haehwa-dong, Seoul
Jin Myung Language School, inside the Jin Myung Fitness Center, Jakjeon, Incheon
BPA (Best Prep Academy) near Jeongja station in Bundang, Korea
Berkeley Language School, Haeundae, Busan
Sogang Language Program (SLP) in Songpa Gu
Pagoda Junior Hwajeong
Yeonsei language school Gumi
Genesis English Academy, Ilsan
Avalon/Langcon Academy in Pyeongtaek
Wiz Island - Janghanpyeong / Dongdaemun Branch
PalsLab Hagwon in Yeontong-gu, Suwon-si
Boramae UBestA Language School/ UBestA Language Institute in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul
Youngseon Middle School in Jeollabuk-do
Maple Bear Songpa or Maple Bear Bundang
Global Tesol
SLP's Hwajeong branch
YBM ECC Suseong-gu Daegu
Miracle Academy, Suseong-gu, Daegu
KDLP Korean Dual-Language Program, Gimhae South Korea
Dongnae Yeonje Gu SLP (Seogang Language program) in Busan
ESL Academy in Yeonsu-dong, Chungju (aka FTK ESL Academy, Chungju)
BaeUm Kids English Village, Haan dong, Gwangmyeong, Gyeonggi do
Best Prep Academy (BPA) in Jeongja
JungChul English Academy, Palyong-dong, Changwon
CCLE (Canadian Cultural Language Experience)
Jeongja Worwick Franklin Institute, Jeongja
Chungdahm and CDI April Gwangmyoung, Cheolsan Station
Geumjeong Corem in Busan
Namcheon Eastern English Academy in Busan
LOTIS, Leaders of Tomorrow International School in Jamsil
UACE International Language Institute, Suji
Woosong University in Daejeon, South Korea
Kings Kids English Academy in Gangnam and Songpa
Wonderland in Hyangnam, near Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do
World Prep School in Geoje
Seoil Foreign Language Institute in Yullyang-dong Sangdang-gu (Cheongju, Chungbuk)
E. Bo Young Talking Club, Chungju
Advanced Junior English in Bundang
SLP Dongnae in Busan
TLBU GLOBAL school in goyang
MLS (My Language School), in Kyungsung University area, Busan
JC English academy in jecheon South Korea
submitted by Davess_World2019 to HagwonBlacklistKorea [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 03:43 anonymousb777 was i emotionally abused

For context, I was having a conversation with one of my friends about this guy I had an unofficial relationship/friendship with about a year and a half ago. I was also talking to her about how being bullied affected me, but more specifically affected my gpa from sophomore year (we're both currently juniors). At some point during the conversation she said to me; "you were being abused." and I kind of laughed about it, I said something like it really isn't that serious like people do shitty things to each other all the time, but I wouldn't call it abuse. And she said, "No, you were being verbally abused." And I was kind of like that's a little dramatic but okay. In these last few weeks, I did a lot of research about abuse and trauma and honestly I was kind of shocked. I resonated with almost every single article I found and I even took quizzes or screenings about abuse and every single one told that it was emotional abuse. It seems wrong to call the relationship I was in and the way I was treated abusive because than I have to accept that that person didn't genuinely love me and honestly could care less about me or if they did love or care for me at all they wouldn't treat me like that. But it's so complicated because there's always room for discussion. I made mistakes too. The guy was a teenager, so was I. I did things wrong too and I didn't always know how to communicate properly. Who knows maybe deep down he did care but didn't express it properly or was too immature to show it. But truthfully I remember during the course of that friendship/relationship I just remember I was in a lot of emotional pain and under a lot of stress but I never really knew why. No one ever told me that someone telling you no one loves or cares about you is wrong, or being told that you're stupid is wrong, or being blamed for everything is wrong, being told that you're selfish or that you overreact about everything, saying one thing and doing the exact opposite etc, is wrong and someone who loves you shouldn't do those things (romantically, platonically, etc).
I was thinking about it for a long time and I came to realize that the reason I could not accept that maybe this person I loved and cared about so deeply did actually emotionally abuse me was because that would mean accepting that my parents did as well. And it made me realize that I never questioned it or just assumed it was normal or that eventually he would stop or things would work out was because that's what I'd known my entire life. I always assumed that the problems I had with my parents or strained relationships were just normal, and a part of growing up and my parents were just strict and it was something I had to deal with. And yeah, to an extent there were things that were simply normal and parts of growing up, but I only recently remembered a shit ton of things from my childhood that I kind of repressed as well as things that happened recently, and I never once reconsidered the fact that it might've actually been fucked up. It's weird because it's so easy to brush everything under the carpet because they're my parents, and I just have to assume that everything they're doing is well-meaning, even if I don't like all of it. And because they're my parents they're family and it's kind of a loyalty thing that no one should disown or estrange themselves from their parents because they're trying their best unless of course, in extreme cases. Recently for my own processing of things I started writing down in a bullet point kind of format things from my childhood or things that happened that make me upset or uneasy, but I'm not sure still if I overreacted or misremembered these things or it was actually bad. Disclaimer: I understand that I have a lot to be grateful for, both my parents are alive and living in the same household, not addicted to anything, don't physically hurt me. I have friends and I know several people with really unfortunate living situations or family problems and I'm sure that is the case for many people here as well so I truly don't mean to come across as an ungrateful brat but I just need some kind of closure or understanding about my life.
If you read all the way to the bottom just let me know your honest opinions and thoughts or if I'm overreacting about everything. It's strange because while I'm not particulary close with either one of my parents, I feel closer and more loved by my dad than my mom. I kind of accepted that my dad has some anger issues and a bad temper but he does genuinely care about me and love me he just can't always control himself. With my mom I hold much more resentment because I feel like she intentionally manipulates me and makes no efforts to change her behavior. I love my siblings very much and I plan on keeping close contact with them while in college but I don't know if I want to contact my parents after I move out, or how to even go about that. I don't even know what to talk to them about and it feels unnatural because they know so little about me as I don't trust them at all. I just want to know if I am being dramatic about this-like are these normal conflicts in every family or was I truly mistreated? I have a lot of self esteem issues and other issues about my self worth and the way I view myself and I never really considered until it now it might be because of the way I was treated by people my entire life.


submitted by anonymousb777 to emotionalabuse [link] [comments]


2023.06.08 23:54 reumdori Darmoshark N3 PCB

Darmoshark N3 PCB
LMB/RMB - Kailh GM 8.0s Middle Button - Huano Black Shell Green Dot DPI Buttons - Kailh White Dots Encoder : F-Switch Encoder(I checked the marking it says 10-S so I assume it uses a 10mm encoder.) Battery : 300 mAh
Notes: If you are doing switch replacement especially on the middle button. There is a possibility that you damage the scroll wheel, because you cannot remove the scroll wheel without actually hitting the LED.
submitted by reumdori to MouseReview [link] [comments]